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Two-party-preferred tables

(Edit 2015-11-27: I have made a slight change to the TPP estimate method, which alters slightly some of the numbers below. The original numbers, posted on 2015-09-03, are here. Edit 2015-11-28: I had earlier omitted the results for 1974 in the second table; these are now shown.)

The following table contains my estimates for the Labor share of the two-party-preferred vote in elections from 1919 to 1980, and the exact figures from 1983 to 2013 (including a guess for Newcastle in 1998). Several of the Northern Territory figures are entirely guessed. I describe my methodology on the data page.

YearAustNSWVicQldWASATasACTNT
191945.948.343.947.041.344.243.7
192248.849.049.245.950.453.544.464.8
192546.246.547.343.343.548.242.962.4
192848.451.248.042.343.251.844.967.5
192956.759.958.145.351.758.954.576.0
193141.543.437.849.442.334.935.560.2
193446.547.244.251.845.941.747.865.2
193748.748.148.850.750.545.351.667.1
194050.053.448.649.346.144.548.768.5
194359.363.355.155.565.858.355.877.8
194654.457.352.247.757.257.252.272.9
194948.950.949.542.447.050.646.560.068.7
195149.150.450.643.645.251.547.465.471.2
195450.853.250.545.147.652.950.064.277.6
195546.149.741.344.445.048.747.764.662.2
195846.149.743.241.241.049.949.670.162.3
196150.554.644.950.543.354.255.764.966.8
196347.349.043.047.844.252.253.954.963.5
196643.043.539.744.045.142.353.355.348.3
196950.151.644.949.552.554.155.771.040.8
197252.655.250.449.548.352.660.465.245.5
197451.554.650.445.448.752.255.459.047.3
197544.447.044.139.741.044.944.049.545.1
197745.647.744.841.940.148.843.954.347.5
198049.850.451.047.247.049.847.258.548.8
198353.2354.0954.4949.4655.0052.3043.5865.4951.87
198451.7752.9153.0947.7150.8651.6746.6361.9648.61
198750.8350.2952.3049.3250.9150.2446.9063.2552.22
199049.9052.1347.4650.1947.1349.5047.9058.5455.02
199351.4454.3851.8048.4346.0247.3354.6561.1955.31
199646.3747.4450.3039.7844.0042.7451.5855.4649.63
199851.0551.7453.5346.9549.4646.8957.3262.4450.57
200149.0548.3452.1445.1448.3845.9257.7361.0852.49
200447.2648.0749.0042.9144.6045.6454.1961.5452.15
200752.7053.6854.2750.4446.7452.4056.2163.4055.41
201050.1248.8455.3144.8643.5953.1860.6261.6750.74
201346.5145.6550.2043.0241.7247.6451.2359.9149.65
201649.6449.4751.8345.9045.3452.2757.3661.1357.06

The following table allows comparisons of estimates for the Labor share of the two-party-preferred vote by me (DB), Adam Carr (AC), Colin Hughes (CH), the late Joan Rydon, and Malcolm Mackerras (the latter two combined in a single series, R/M). Carr's estimates are from here, Hughes's estimates are those on the AEC website, and the Rydon/Mackerras series is gleaned from several sources. Mumble posted scans of tables provided by Mackerras for 1937-1958. These contain Rydon's estimates for 1937-1943 and 1951-1955, and Mackerras's estimates for 1946, 1949, and 1958. Mackerras's estimates for 1961-1974 are in his book Elections 1975, pp192-3. His estimates for 1975 and 1977 are from his monograph Australian General Election and Senate Election, December 10, 1977: Statistical Analysis, and for 1980 from Australian General Election and Senate Election 1980: Statistical Analysis.

AustNSWVicQldWASATasACTNT
YearDBACCHR/MDBACCHR/MDBACCHR/MDBACCHR/MDBACCHR/MDBACCHR/MDBACCHR/MDBACCHR/MDBACCHR/M
191945.946.048.348.543.942.947.049.741.341.344.244.143.742.7
192248.846.649.047.549.245.045.945.650.443.353.553.144.444.564.8
192546.245.946.546.447.346.643.343.843.540.848.248.242.945.262.4
192848.448.451.250.548.048.942.342.943.243.651.852.444.942.067.5
192956.755.759.958.758.157.745.344.851.747.258.957.854.554.476.0
193141.539.143.439.737.835.549.450.842.340.634.932.635.535.460.2
193446.546.347.247.544.243.251.851.945.945.841.742.047.849.165.2
193748.748.049.448.148.448.848.846.849.850.748.551.750.550.550.445.345.945.451.652.453.167.1
194050.049.750.353.452.954.248.647.848.449.349.049.246.147.848.144.544.944.048.748.048.968.5
194359.359.158.263.360.962.755.157.654.455.555.254.665.865.662.058.358.358.255.856.655.377.8
194654.453.753.857.356.056.652.252.251.647.747.047.057.256.556.657.257.557.352.252.252.272.9
194948.948.449.048.750.950.150.850.549.549.049.749.542.442.342.742.547.046.747.045.450.650.650.650.646.546.546.546.560.068.7
195149.149.349.349.250.450.550.551.350.650.250.750.643.644.343.543.245.246.045.645.551.551.851.851.747.448.247.447.465.471.2
195450.851.250.750.553.253.053.053.250.550.550.750.745.145.144.844.247.648.148.147.852.956.752.752.950.049.950.049.964.277.6
195546.146.445.846.549.750.449.549.641.340.440.841.344.444.743.944.045.044.943.546.748.750.949.050.947.747.447.547.964.662.2
195846.145.945.945.949.749.849.849.843.242.342.342.341.241.441.441.441.040.840.840.849.949.849.849.849.649.849.849.870.162.3
196150.550.550.550.554.654.854.854.844.944.544.544.550.550.750.750.743.343.543.543.554.254.254.254.255.756.056.056.064.966.8
196347.347.447.447.449.049.349.349.343.042.542.542.547.848.148.148.144.243.843.843.852.253.353.353.353.954.554.554.554.963.5
196643.043.143.143.143.543.943.943.939.739.339.339.344.044.344.344.345.145.745.745.742.342.442.442.453.353.953.953.955.354.855.848.348.3
196950.150.250.250.251.651.651.651.644.944.944.944.949.549.949.949.952.552.652.652.654.154.254.254.255.756.156.156.171.070.971.640.840.840.8
197252.652.752.752.755.255.455.455.450.450.450.450.449.549.549.549.548.348.348.348.352.652.752.752.760.460.560.560.565.268.068.068.045.545.545.545.5
197451.551.751.751.754.654.954.954.950.450.650.650.645.445.445.445.448.748.548.548.552.252.552.552.555.455.455.455.459.059.759.759.747.347.347.347.3
197544.444.344.344.347.046.846.846.844.143.843.843.839.739.839.839.841.041.241.241.244.944.944.944.944.044.144.144.149.549.349.349.345.145.145.145.1
197745.645.445.445.447.747.647.647.644.844.544.544.541.942.042.042.040.139.939.939.948.848.748.748.743.943.843.843.854.354.354.354.347.547.547.547.5
198049.849.449.649.650.450.150.450.451.050.750.750.747.246.846.946.947.045.946.746.649.849.349.649.447.247.147.147.058.558.358.658.548.848.848.848.8

Posted 2015-09-03,
updated 2015-11-28,
updated 2016-10-06.


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