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Queensland electoral scatterplots

It's been said by pretty much everyone who's commented on it that the preference flows at the 2015 Queensland election were substantially different from those in 2012 – a strong campaign by the non-LNP side to number every square helped to reduce the rate of exhaustion, increase the rate of preference flow to Labor, and decrease the rate of preference flow to the LNP.

I thought it'd be interesting to compare the exhaustion rate in each electorate in the two elections. The graph at the end of this page shows (by default) the exhaustion rate in 2015 plotted against the exhaustion rate in 2012. The regression line is

exh_2015 = 0.93*exh_2012 - 11.4,

so the exhaustion rate, previously around 50%, decreased by around 15 percentage points in this election.

But why stop there!? In the widget below (thankyou d3.js), you can set the axes to plot any of a number of variables from any Queensland election since 1992. The plot area is zoomable and pannable, and if you move your mouse over a circle, the seat name and the values for the current plot will be shown at top-left. Clicking on a circle turns it white, and you can follow that electorate as you change the axes. (For touch-screen users, mouseover and click are almost identical; the temporarily cyan circles make sense if you're using a mouse.)

We can see the correlation between the two-party-preferred vote in 1992 and that in 2015 (0.84), watch the exhaustion rate rise enormously in 2001, etc.

Some notes:




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Posted 2015-02-06, updated 2015-02-17.

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