Home > Pseph > Seat markets > By date | By seat
2013-08-26
Implied swings to ALP
National | -4.3 |
Qld | -2 |
NSW | -5 |
Vic | -4.9 |
Tas | -10.5 |
SA | -5.4 |
WA | -2 |
ACT | -0.0999999999999999 |
NT | -3 |
| Sportsbet | Centrebet | Luxbet | | |
Electorate | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | avg p(ALP) | swing |
Adelaide | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 3.75 | 1.22 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 1.4 | 0.66 | 0.70 | -4.80 |
Aston | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -6.65 |
Ballarat | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 8.50 | 1.04 | 0.89 | 6 | 1.09 | 0.85 | 0.86 | -6.35 |
Banks | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.18 | 4.15 | 0.22 | 0.23 | -5.40 |
Barker | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.40 |
Barton | 2.40 | 1.53 | 0.61 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 2.35 | 1.52 | 0.61 | 0.62 | -5.40 |
Bass | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.1 | 5.75 | 0.16 | 0.15 | -11.10 |
Batman | 11.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -17.05 |
Bendigo | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 4.25 | 1.18 | 0.78 | 3.25 | 1.3 | 0.71 | 0.73 | -6.55 |
Bennelong | 1.06 | 7.50 | 0.12 | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.06 | 7.5 | 0.12 | 0.13 | -3.10 |
Berowra | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.00 |
Blair | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.25 | 1.6 | 0.58 | 0.59 | -2.70 |
Blaxland | 10.00 | 1.03 | 0.91 | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 8 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.89 | -5.45 |
Bonner | 1.38 | 2.80 | 0.33 | 1.28 | 3.40 | 0.27 | 1.35 | 2.9 | 0.32 | 0.31 | -0.55 |
Boothby | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.03 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 10 | 0.09 | 0.09 | -7.30 |
Bowman | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.06 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 2.40 |
Braddon | 1.15 | 5.00 | 0.19 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.13 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.20 | -11.05 |
Bradfield | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.00 |
Brand | 2.20 | 1.62 | 0.58 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.58 | 0.58 | -2.45 |
Brisbane | 1.60 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 1.55 | 2.30 | 0.40 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 0.41 | 0.41 | -0.40 |
Bruce | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 4.25 | 1.18 | 0.78 | 3.75 | 1.23 | 0.75 | 0.76 | -4.45 |
Calare | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 1.15 |
Calwell | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -11.00 |
Canberra | 10.00 | 1.001 | 0.91 | 10.00 | 1.03 | 0.91 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -0.05 |
Canning | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.08 | 6 | 0.15 | 0.15 | -2.45 |
Capricornia | 2.30 | 1.57 | 0.59 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 0.66 | 2.25 | 1.6 | 0.58 | 0.61 | -1.85 |
Casey | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | na | na | na | 0.12 | -4.10 |
Charlton | 21.00 | 1.001 | 0.95 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.95 | -5.00 |
Chifley | 7.00 | 1.08 | 0.87 | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.86 | -6.45 |
Chisholm | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 3 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 0.71 | -3.30 |
Cook | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 2.20 |
Corangamite | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.02 | 10 | 0.09 | 0.11 | -6.50 |
Corio | 11.00 | 1.02 | 0.92 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 10 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.91 | -6.05 |
Cowan | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.04 | 8.50 | 0.11 | na | na | na | 0.10 | 0.05 |
Cowper | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 0.25 |
Cunningham | 11.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 10.00 | 1.02 | 0.91 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -5.20 |
Curtin | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 7.60 |
Dawson | 1.33 | 3.00 | 0.31 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 0.24 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 0.28 | 0.28 | -1.55 |
Deakin | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.05 | 7.5 | 0.12 | 0.13 | -6.35 |
Denison | 1.15 | 4.50 | 0.20 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.15 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.18 | -2.55 |
Dickson | 1.02 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.01 | 10 | 0.09 | 0.10 | -4.50 |
Dobell | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.25 | 3.60 | 0.26 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 0.23 | -8.95 |
Dunkley | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | na | na | na | 0.11 | -5.30 |
Durack | 1.33 | 3.00 | 0.31 | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.33 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 11.35 |
Eden-Monaro | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 0.43 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.49 | 0.47 | -4.55 |
Fadden | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.04 | 8.50 | 0.11 | na | na | na | 0.10 | 4.45 |
Fairfax | 1.08 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.12 | 6.50 | 0.15 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.15 | -0.30 |
Farrer | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 2.80 |
Fisher | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.12 | 6.00 | 0.16 | na | na | na | 0.12 | -4.50 |
Flinders | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 0.05 |
Flynn | 1.33 | 3.00 | 0.31 | 1.26 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.26 | 3.4 | 0.27 | 0.28 | -0.25 |
Forde | 1.18 | 4.50 | 0.21 | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.17 | 4.75 | 0.20 | 0.21 | -3.80 |
Forrest | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -0.45 |
Fowler | 5.00 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 5.25 | 1.12 | 0.82 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.82 | -4.00 |
Franklin | 2.80 | 1.38 | 0.67 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 2.85 | 1.36 | 0.68 | 0.66 | -9.20 |
Fraser | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -1.65 |
Fremantle | 5.00 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 6.50 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.83 | -1.55 |
Gellibrand | 26.00 | 1.001 | 0.96 | 17.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.95 | -4.90 |
Gilmore | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.08 | 6.5 | 0.14 | 0.14 | -0.50 |
Gippsland | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 2.95 |
Goldstein | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -3.60 |
Gorton | 13.00 | 1.001 | 0.93 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -15.10 |
Grayndler | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -9.95 |
Greenway | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 0.29 | 1.22 | 3.75 | 0.25 | 0.26 | -4.35 |
Grey | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 2.40 |
Griffith | 2.80 | 1.38 | 0.67 | 3.20 | 1.30 | 0.71 | 2.5 | 1.45 | 0.63 | 0.67 | -5.60 |
Groom | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 3.40 |
Hasluck | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.28 | 3.40 | 0.27 | 1.23 | 3.65 | 0.25 | 0.26 | -2.10 |
Herbert | 1.17 | 4.50 | 0.21 | 1.15 | 4.80 | 0.19 | 1.16 | 4.5 | 0.20 | 0.20 | -3.50 |
Higgins | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -4.20 |
Hindmarsh | 2.10 | 1.67 | 0.56 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2 | 1.7 | 0.54 | 0.56 | -5.30 |
Hinkler | 1.02 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 10 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.65 |
Holt | 10.00 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 10 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.91 | -6.70 |
Hotham | 10.00 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 10 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.91 | -6.70 |
Hughes | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -3.95 |
Hume | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 0.40 |
Hunter | 7.50 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 8.00 | 1.04 | 0.88 | 7.5 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -6.00 |
Indi | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 0.24 | 1.25 | 3.5 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 5.90 |
Isaacs | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 7.50 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 9 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 0.89 | -4.10 |
Jagajaga | 7.00 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 7.50 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 7.5 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -5.35 |
Kennedy | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 17.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 8.5 | 1.06 | 0.89 | 0.91 | -8.45 |
Kingsford Smith | 2.00 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 1.95 | 1.8 | 0.52 | 0.52 | -5.00 |
Kingston | 9.00 | 1.04 | 0.90 | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 9 | 1.04 | 0.90 | 0.90 | -7.30 |
Kooyong | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -2.10 |
La Trobe | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 0.29 | 1.22 | 3.75 | 0.25 | 0.27 | -4.65 |
Lalor | 8.00 | 1.02 | 0.89 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 8 | 1.02 | 0.89 | 0.90 | -15.45 |
Leichhardt | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.15 | 4.80 | 0.19 | 1.1 | 6 | 0.15 | 0.17 | -2.05 |
Lilley | 2.20 | 1.60 | 0.58 | 2.50 | 1.45 | 0.63 | 2.1 | 1.65 | 0.56 | 0.59 | -1.75 |
Lindsay | 1.04 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.03 | 7.75 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -7.50 |
Lingiari | 2.00 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 0.57 | 1.95 | 1.8 | 0.52 | 0.54 | -3.05 |
Longman | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 0.22 | -3.30 |
Lyne | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 3.70 |
Lyons | 2.25 | 1.55 | 0.59 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 0.59 | 0.56 | -11.70 |
Macarthur | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.05 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -3.70 |
Mackellar | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 2.35 |
Macquarie | 1.09 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.09 | 6.25 | 0.15 | 0.15 | -4.35 |
Makin | 5.50 | 1.12 | 0.83 | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 5 | 1.15 | 0.81 | 0.83 | -6.95 |
Mallee | 2.00 | 1.72 | 0.54 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.30 | 20.90 |
Maranoa | 1.02 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 10.05 |
Maribyrnong | 17.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -8.40 |
Mayo | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.40 |
McEwen | 2.40 | 1.53 | 0.61 | 2.90 | 1.35 | 0.68 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 0.63 | -7.65 |
McMahon | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 3.40 | 1.28 | 0.73 | 3.25 | 1.28 | 0.72 | 0.73 | -4.70 |
McMillan | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.06 | 7.50 | 0.12 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -2.85 |
McPherson | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -2.50 |
Melbourne | 4.50 | 1.20 | 0.79 | 3.60 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 5 | 1.1 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 9.70 |
Melbourne Ports | 6.50 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 5.25 | 1.12 | 0.82 | 6.5 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 0.85 | -2.90 |
Menzies | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -4.90 |
Mitchell | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 7.30 |
Moncrieff | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.02 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 2.30 |
Moore | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 3.05 |
Moreton | 1.55 | 2.30 | 0.40 | 1.55 | 2.30 | 0.40 | 1.45 | 2.45 | 0.37 | 0.39 | -2.90 |
Murray | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -4.90 |
New England | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.06 | 6.00 |
Newcastle | 4.00 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 4.80 | 1.15 | 0.81 | 4 | 1.2 | 0.77 | 0.78 | -8.45 |
North Sydney | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 0.75 |
O'Connor | 1.40 | 2.75 | 0.34 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 0.36 | 1.42 | 2.65 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 21.35 |
Oxley | 5.50 | 1.07 | 0.84 | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 6 | 1.07 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 1.20 |
Page | 2.40 | 1.53 | 0.61 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 0.59 | 0.60 | -2.95 |
Parkes | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 10.10 |
Parramatta | 2.00 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.51 | 0.53 | -4.10 |
Paterson | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -4.30 |
Pearce | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -2.00 |
Perth | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 4.80 | 1.15 | 0.81 | 6 | 1.1 | 0.85 | 0.83 | -1.70 |
Petrie | 2.10 | 1.70 | 0.55 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 0.57 | 2.1 | 1.75 | 0.55 | 0.55 | -1.65 |
Port Adelaide | 17.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -9.35 |
Rankin | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 4.25 | 1.18 | 0.78 | 4 | 1.2 | 0.77 | 0.76 | -0.65 |
Reid | 1.20 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.18 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 0.22 | -6.70 |
Richmond | 2.80 | 1.38 | 0.67 | 3.60 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 2.85 | 1.37 | 0.68 | 0.70 | -4.40 |
Riverina | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.00 |
Robertson | 1.28 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 1.35 | 3.20 | 0.30 | 1.26 | 3.5 | 0.26 | 0.28 | -4.00 |
Ryan | 1.01 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 8.50 | 0.11 | 1.01 | 10 | 0.09 | 0.10 | -2.30 |
Scullin | 13.00 | 1.001 | 0.93 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -12.10 |
Shortland | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 10 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.90 | -5.50 |
Solomon | 1.21 | 3.70 | 0.25 | 1.26 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.25 | -3.00 |
Stirling | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -0.50 |
Sturt | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -3.95 |
Swan | 1.10 | 5.50 | 0.17 | 1.15 | 4.80 | 0.19 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.18 | -1.60 |
Sydney | 12.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 11.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -8.60 |
Tangney | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 2.65 |
Throsby | 12.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -4.20 |
Wakefield | 5.00 | 1.05 | 0.83 | 5.25 | 1.12 | 0.82 | 4.5 | 1.07 | 0.81 | 0.82 | -5.70 |
Wannon | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 21.00 | 0.05 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -4.90 |
Warringah | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.00 |
Watson | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 8 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -2.45 |
Wentworth | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.04 | -5.00 |
Werriwa | 2.75 | 1.40 | 0.66 | 2.90 | 1.35 | 0.68 | 2.65 | 1.42 | 0.65 | 0.67 | -4.65 |
Wide Bay | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 2.80 |
Wills | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 26.00 | 1.01 | 0.96 | na | na | na | 0.95 | -4.90 |
Wright | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -1.55 |
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