Home > Pseph > Seat markets > By date | By seat
2013-09-05
Implied swings to ALP
National | -5.5 |
Qld | -3.6 |
NSW | -6.2 |
Vic | -5.4 |
Tas | -11.5 |
SA | -5.7 |
WA | -3 |
ACT | 0 |
NT | -4.2 |
| Sportsbet | Centrebet | Luxbet | | |
Electorate | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | avg p(ALP) | swing |
Adelaide | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 3.80 | 1.22 | 0.76 | 3.45 | 1.26 | 0.73 | 0.74 | -4.15 |
Aston | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.08 | -7.00 |
Ballarat | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 8.50 | 1.04 | 0.89 | 7.5 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -5.65 |
Banks | 1.02 | 9.50 | 0.10 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.02 | 9.5 | 0.10 | 0.10 | -7.15 |
Barker | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.70 |
Barton | 2.10 | 1.70 | 0.55 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 0.59 | 0.58 | -6.15 |
Bass | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.04 | 9.00 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -13.05 |
Batman | 11.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -17.05 |
Bendigo | 2.60 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 0.66 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.66 | 0.65 | -7.60 |
Bennelong | 1.001 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 9.00 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -2.60 |
Berowra | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.04 | -6.20 |
Blair | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 0.51 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 0.51 | -4.00 |
Blaxland | 8.00 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 8 | 1.04 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -7.15 |
Bonner | 1.13 | 5.50 | 0.17 | 1.14 | 5.00 | 0.19 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.20 | -2.65 |
Boothby | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | -7.95 |
Bowman | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.03 | 9.50 | 0.10 | 1.02 | 9.5 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1.30 |
Braddon | 1.03 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.04 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -13.00 |
Bradfield | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.03 | -6.20 |
Brand | 1.67 | 2.10 | 0.44 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 1.67 | 2.05 | 0.45 | 0.46 | -3.65 |
Brisbane | 1.28 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 0.29 | na | na | na | 0.29 | -2.40 |
Bruce | 3.25 | 1.28 | 0.72 | 3.80 | 1.22 | 0.76 | 3.5 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 0.74 | -4.75 |
Calare | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 3.25 |
Calwell | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -11.00 |
Canberra | 10.00 | 1.001 | 0.91 | 11.00 | 1.02 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.91 | 0.05 |
Canning | 1.001 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 9.00 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -2.70 |
Capricornia | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 2.1 | 1.65 | 0.56 | 0.53 | -3.25 |
Casey | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.04 | 9.00 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -5.15 |
Charlton | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -6.60 |
Chifley | 7.00 | 1.08 | 0.87 | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.86 | -7.75 |
Chisholm | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 2.35 | 1.47 | 0.62 | 0.68 | -3.65 |
Cook | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 4.50 |
Corangamite | 1.001 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.03 | 9.50 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -7.10 |
Corio | 11.00 | 1.02 | 0.92 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 10 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.91 | -6.05 |
Cowan | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | 0.95 |
Cowper | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 2.25 |
Cunningham | 11.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 10.00 | 1.02 | 0.91 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -7.00 |
Curtin | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 8.40 |
Dawson | 1.18 | 4.50 | 0.21 | 1.14 | 5.00 | 0.19 | 1.15 | 4.75 | 0.19 | 0.20 | -3.05 |
Deakin | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.03 | 9.50 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -7.60 |
Denison | 1.03 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.07 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.04 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.11 | -4.45 |
Dickson | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -4.30 |
Dobell | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.12 | 5.50 | 0.17 | 1.08 | 6.5 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -9.50 |
Dunkley | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -5.95 |
Durack | 1.17 | 4.50 | 0.21 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 0.24 | 1.25 | 3.5 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 11.20 |
Eden-Monaro | 1.20 | 3.75 | 0.24 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 0.29 | 1.2 | 3.75 | 0.24 | 0.26 | -6.85 |
Fadden | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 4.25 |
Fairfax | 1.08 | 5.00 | 0.18 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.08 | 4.5 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1.00 |
Farrer | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 5.40 |
Fisher | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.08 | 7.00 | 0.13 | na | na | na | 0.11 | -4.45 |
Flinders | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -1.05 |
Flynn | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.22 | 3.75 | 0.25 | 0.24 | -0.80 |
Forde | 1.05 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.07 | 5.5 | 0.16 | 0.15 | -5.15 |
Forrest | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 1.25 |
Fowler | 5.00 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 5.25 | 1.12 | 0.82 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.82 | -5.10 |
Franklin | 2.40 | 1.53 | 0.61 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 2.5 | 1.47 | 0.63 | 0.63 | -9.50 |
Fraser | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -1.85 |
Fremantle | 3.75 | 1.20 | 0.76 | 6.50 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.81 | -2.65 |
Gellibrand | 26.00 | 1.001 | 0.96 | 17.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.95 | -5.40 |
Gilmore | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.03 | 9.00 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -0.60 |
Gippsland | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 2.95 |
Goldstein | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -3.60 |
Gorton | 13.00 | 1.001 | 0.93 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -15.10 |
Grayndler | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -12.30 |
Greenway | 1.10 | 5.00 | 0.18 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | na | na | na | 0.20 | -4.40 |
Grey | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 2.40 |
Griffith | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 3.60 | 1.25 | 0.74 | na | na | na | 0.74 | -4.55 |
Groom | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.06 | 0.70 |
Hasluck | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.13 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.16 | -2.95 |
Herbert | 1.03 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.06 | 7.50 | 0.12 | 1.04 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.11 | -5.95 |
Higgins | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -4.20 |
Hindmarsh | 1.67 | 2.10 | 0.44 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 0.55 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -6.15 |
Hinkler | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | 1.00 |
Holt | 10.00 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 10 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.91 | -6.70 |
Hotham | 10.00 | 1.001 | 0.91 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -6.50 |
Hughes | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -1.95 |
Hume | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 2.25 |
Hunter | 6.50 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.86 | -7.85 |
Indi | 1.62 | 2.10 | 0.44 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 8.05 |
Isaacs | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.87 | -4.70 |
Jagajaga | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 7.50 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.87 | -5.45 |
Kennedy | 9.00 | 1.001 | 0.90 | 17.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -7.85 |
Kingsford Smith | 1.67 | 2.10 | 0.44 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 0.45 | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.45 | -5.70 |
Kingston | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 9.50 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 7.5 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.89 | -7.70 |
Kooyong | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -2.10 |
La Trobe | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.13 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.19 | -6.05 |
Lalor | 9.00 | 1.001 | 0.90 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -14.85 |
Leichhardt | 1.03 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.08 | 6.5 | 0.14 | 0.12 | -3.25 |
Lilley | 1.40 | 2.75 | 0.34 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 0.38 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.36 | 0.36 | -5.45 |
Lindsay | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.03 | 9.50 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -7.40 |
Lingiari | 1.73 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 0.48 | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.47 | -4.25 |
Longman | 1.04 | 7.50 | 0.12 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.08 | 6.5 | 0.14 | 0.14 | -5.20 |
Lyne | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 5.65 |
Lyons | 1.62 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 0.45 | 1.65 | 2.1 | 0.44 | 0.44 | -12.95 |
Macarthur | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -3.25 |
Mackellar | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.05 | -6.20 |
Macquarie | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.05 | 7.5 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -3.70 |
Makin | 5.50 | 1.12 | 0.83 | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.83 | -6.90 |
Mallee | 2.20 | 1.62 | 0.58 | na | na | na | 2.1 | 1.65 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 24.05 |
Maranoa | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.06 | 9.95 |
Maribyrnong | 17.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -8.40 |
Mayo | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.70 |
McEwen | 2.00 | 1.73 | 0.54 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 0.58 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.58 | 0.56 | -8.45 |
McMahon | 2.40 | 1.53 | 0.61 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 0.66 | na | na | na | 0.64 | -6.45 |
McMillan | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -4.50 |
McPherson | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -2.30 |
Melbourne | 2.50 | 1.50 | 0.63 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 0.66 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 7.55 |
Melbourne Ports | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 5.25 | 1.12 | 0.82 | 6.5 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 0.84 | -3.00 |
Menzies | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.40 |
Mitchell | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.06 | 8.80 |
Moncrieff | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.05 | -3.60 |
Moore | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 4.60 |
Moreton | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.35 | 2.90 | 0.32 | 1.33 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.30 | -4.40 |
Murray | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.03 | -5.40 |
New England | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.06 | 8.40 |
Newcastle | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 4.80 | 1.15 | 0.81 | 4 | 1.18 | 0.77 | 0.77 | -9.50 |
North Sydney | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 3.70 |
O'Connor | 1.15 | 4.50 | 0.20 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 19.95 |
Oxley | 3.20 | 1.29 | 0.71 | 4.25 | 1.18 | 0.78 | 3.25 | 1.28 | 0.72 | 0.74 | -1.90 |
Page | 2.00 | 1.73 | 0.54 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 0.56 | 2.1 | 1.63 | 0.56 | 0.55 | -3.70 |
Parkes | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.08 | 12.40 |
Parramatta | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 0.29 | 1.28 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 0.27 | -6.90 |
Paterson | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -2.15 |
Pearce | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -3.00 |
Perth | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 6.50 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 4.5 | 1.15 | 0.80 | 0.83 | -2.50 |
Petrie | 1.57 | 2.30 | 0.41 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 0.43 | 1.65 | 2.1 | 0.44 | 0.43 | -3.65 |
Port Adelaide | 17.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -9.35 |
Rankin | 2.80 | 1.38 | 0.67 | 3.40 | 1.28 | 0.73 | 3 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 0.70 | -2.25 |
Reid | 1.02 | 8.00 | 0.11 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.02 | 8 | 0.11 | 0.13 | -7.60 |
Richmond | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 3.20 | 1.30 | 0.71 | 2.85 | 1.37 | 0.68 | 0.69 | -5.00 |
Riverina | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.04 | -6.20 |
Robertson | 1.03 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.06 | 7.50 | 0.12 | 1.06 | 7 | 0.13 | 0.12 | -6.15 |
Ryan | 1.001 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 8.50 | 0.11 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -1.40 |
Scullin | 13.00 | 1.001 | 0.93 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -12.10 |
Shortland | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | na | na | na | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.87 | -8.15 |
Solomon | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.15 | 4.80 | 0.19 | 1.13 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.18 | -4.25 |
Stirling | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | 0.25 |
Sturt | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | -4.95 |
Swan | 1.08 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.12 | 5.25 | 0.18 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.17 | -1.00 |
Sydney | 12.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 11.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -10.50 |
Tangney | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 4.50 |
Throsby | 12.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -5.95 |
Wakefield | 4.00 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 4.25 | 1.18 | 0.78 | 4.25 | 1.18 | 0.78 | 0.78 | -6.55 |
Wannon | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 21.00 | 0.05 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.40 |
Warringah | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.04 | -6.20 |
Watson | 7.00 | 1.05 | 0.87 | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 8 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -4.05 |
Wentworth | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.03 | -6.20 |
Werriwa | 2.00 | 1.73 | 0.54 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 0.58 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 0.55 | 0.56 | -6.25 |
Wide Bay | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 5.00 |
Wills | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 26.00 | 1.01 | 0.96 | na | na | na | 0.95 | -5.40 |
Wright | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -0.75 |
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