Home > Pseph > Seat markets > By date | By seat
2013-09-02
Implied swings to ALP
| National | -5.2 |
| Qld | -2.9 |
| NSW | -6 |
| Vic | -5.3 |
| Tas | -11.4 |
| SA | -5.5 |
| WA | -2.9 |
| ACT | 0 |
| NT | -3.9 |
| Sportsbet | Centrebet | Luxbet | | |
|---|
| Electorate | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | LNP | ALP | p(ALP) | avg p(ALP) | swing |
|---|
| Adelaide | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 5.25 | 1.12 | 0.82 | 3.45 | 1.26 | 0.73 | 0.75 | -4.10 |
| Aston | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.08 | -7.00 |
| Ballarat | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 8.50 | 1.04 | 0.89 | 7.5 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -5.65 |
| Banks | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.02 | 9.5 | 0.10 | 0.11 | -6.90 |
| Barker | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.50 |
| Barton | 2.20 | 1.62 | 0.58 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 0.59 | 0.60 | -5.90 |
| Bass | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.06 | 7.50 | 0.12 | na | na | na | 0.11 | -12.65 |
| Batman | 11.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -17.05 |
| Bendigo | 2.75 | 1.40 | 0.66 | 2.90 | 1.35 | 0.68 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.66 | 0.67 | -7.40 |
| Bennelong | 1.001 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 9.00 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -2.60 |
| Berowra | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -6.00 |
| Blair | 2.00 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 0.56 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 0.54 | -3.60 |
| Blaxland | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 8 | 1.04 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -7.15 |
| Bonner | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.23 | -1.75 |
| Boothby | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | -7.75 |
| Bowman | 1.03 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.03 | 9.50 | 0.10 | 1.02 | 9.5 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1.65 |
| Braddon | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.04 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.13 | -12.80 |
| Bradfield | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -6.00 |
| Brand | 1.67 | 2.10 | 0.44 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 0.48 | 1.67 | 2.05 | 0.45 | 0.46 | -3.70 |
| Brisbane | 1.36 | 2.88 | 0.32 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 0.36 | 1.33 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.33 | -1.55 |
| Bruce | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 3.5 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 0.75 | -4.60 |
| Calare | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 3.25 |
| Calwell | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -11.00 |
| Canberra | 10.00 | 1.001 | 0.91 | 11.00 | 1.02 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.91 | 0.05 |
| Canning | 1.001 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 9.00 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -3.15 |
| Capricornia | 2.10 | 1.67 | 0.56 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.1 | 1.65 | 0.56 | 0.57 | -2.65 |
| Casey | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -4.85 |
| Charlton | 21.00 | 1.001 | 0.95 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -4.15 |
| Chifley | 7.00 | 1.08 | 0.87 | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.86 | -7.75 |
| Chisholm | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 3 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 0.71 | -3.30 |
| Cook | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 4.50 |
| Corangamite | 1.001 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.03 | 9.50 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -7.10 |
| Corio | 11.00 | 1.02 | 0.92 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 10 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.91 | -6.05 |
| Cowan | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | 0.40 |
| Cowper | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 2.25 |
| Cunningham | 11.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 10.00 | 1.02 | 0.91 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -7.00 |
| Curtin | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 7.60 |
| Dawson | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.14 | 5.00 | 0.19 | 1.15 | 4.75 | 0.19 | 0.20 | -2.75 |
| Deakin | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.03 | 9.50 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -7.60 |
| Denison | 1.05 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.07 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.04 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -4.30 |
| Dickson | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -4.10 |
| Dobell | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.14 | 5.25 | 0.18 | 1.08 | 6.5 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -9.40 |
| Dunkley | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -5.95 |
| Durack | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 0.24 | 1.25 | 3.5 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 11.20 |
| Eden-Monaro | 1.20 | 3.75 | 0.24 | 1.35 | 2.90 | 0.32 | 1.2 | 3.75 | 0.24 | 0.27 | -6.70 |
| Fadden | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 4.45 |
| Fairfax | 1.06 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.06 | 6 | 0.15 | 0.14 | -0.05 |
| Farrer | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 5.40 |
| Fisher | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.08 | 7.00 | 0.13 | na | na | na | 0.11 | -4.30 |
| Flinders | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -1.05 |
| Flynn | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.26 | 3.50 | 0.26 | 1.22 | 3.75 | 0.25 | 0.26 | -0.40 |
| Forde | 1.05 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.12 | 5.25 | 0.18 | 1.06 | 7 | 0.13 | 0.15 | -5.15 |
| Forrest | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| Fowler | 5.00 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 5.25 | 1.12 | 0.82 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.82 | -5.10 |
| Franklin | 2.50 | 1.50 | 0.63 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 2.5 | 1.47 | 0.63 | 0.63 | -9.40 |
| Fraser | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -1.85 |
| Fremantle | 5.00 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 6.50 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.83 | -2.00 |
| Gellibrand | 26.00 | 1.001 | 0.96 | 17.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.95 | -5.30 |
| Gilmore | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -0.95 |
| Gippsland | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 2.95 |
| Goldstein | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -3.60 |
| Gorton | 13.00 | 1.001 | 0.93 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -15.10 |
| Grayndler | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -12.30 |
| Greenway | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.08 | 6.5 | 0.14 | 0.17 | -4.95 |
| Grey | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 2.60 |
| Griffith | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 0.77 | na | na | na | 0.73 | -4.80 |
| Groom | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 4.70 |
| Hasluck | 1.14 | 5.00 | 0.19 | 1.20 | 4.00 | 0.23 | 1.13 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.20 | -2.65 |
| Herbert | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.08 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.04 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -5.45 |
| Higgins | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -4.20 |
| Hindmarsh | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 0.56 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 0.52 | -5.85 |
| Hinkler | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | 1.20 |
| Holt | 10.00 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 10 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.91 | -6.70 |
| Hotham | 10.00 | 1.001 | 0.91 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -6.50 |
| Hughes | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -1.95 |
| Hume | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.01 | 12.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 2.25 |
| Hunter | 7.50 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.87 | -7.70 |
| Indi | 1.28 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 0.29 | 1.33 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 6.45 |
| Isaacs | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.87 | -4.70 |
| Jagajaga | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 7.50 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.87 | -5.45 |
| Kennedy | 11.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 17.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -7.05 |
| Kingsford Smith | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 0.52 | -5.05 |
| Kingston | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 9.50 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 7.5 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.89 | -7.85 |
| Kooyong | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | -2.10 |
| La Trobe | 1.14 | 5.00 | 0.19 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.13 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.20 | -5.85 |
| Lalor | 8.00 | 1.02 | 0.89 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 8 | 1.02 | 0.89 | 0.90 | -15.45 |
| Leichhardt | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.08 | 6.5 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -2.15 |
| Lilley | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 0.55 | 1.62 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.50 | -3.25 |
| Lindsay | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.03 | 9.50 | 0.10 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -7.25 |
| Lingiari | 1.80 | 1.90 | 0.49 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 0.51 | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.48 | -3.95 |
| Longman | 1.08 | 6.50 | 0.14 | 1.12 | 5.25 | 0.18 | 1.08 | 6.5 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -4.60 |
| Lyne | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 5.65 |
| Lyons | 1.67 | 2.10 | 0.44 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 0.45 | 1.65 | 2.1 | 0.44 | 0.45 | -12.90 |
| Macarthur | 1.001 | 10.00 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -3.25 |
| Mackellar | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -6.00 |
| Macquarie | 1.05 | 8.00 | 0.12 | 1.07 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.05 | 7.5 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -3.70 |
| Makin | 5.50 | 1.12 | 0.83 | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.83 | -7.05 |
| Mallee | 2.10 | 1.67 | 0.56 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 2.1 | 1.65 | 0.56 | 0.40 | 22.05 |
| Maranoa | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 9.10 |
| Maribyrnong | 17.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 12.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -8.40 |
| Mayo | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.50 |
| McEwen | 2.20 | 1.62 | 0.58 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.58 | 0.58 | -8.25 |
| McMahon | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 0.66 | na | na | na | 0.68 | -6.00 |
| McMillan | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -4.50 |
| McPherson | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -1.40 |
| Melbourne | 3.75 | 1.22 | 0.75 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 3.75 | 1.22 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 9.30 |
| Melbourne Ports | 6.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 5.25 | 1.12 | 0.82 | 6.5 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 0.84 | -3.00 |
| Menzies | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.30 |
| Mitchell | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 9.50 |
| Moncrieff | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.02 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 3.60 |
| Moore | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 3.90 |
| Moreton | 1.35 | 2.90 | 0.32 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 0.34 | 1.33 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.32 | -3.90 |
| Murray | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.30 |
| New England | 1.001 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.06 | 8.40 |
| Newcastle | 4.00 | 1.18 | 0.77 | 4.80 | 1.15 | 0.81 | 4 | 1.18 | 0.77 | 0.78 | -9.35 |
| North Sydney | 1.001 | 19.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 3.70 |
| O'Connor | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 19.40 |
| Oxley | 3.20 | 1.29 | 0.71 | 5.00 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 3.25 | 1.28 | 0.72 | 0.75 | -1.75 |
| Page | 2.20 | 1.62 | 0.58 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.1 | 1.63 | 0.56 | 0.58 | -3.45 |
| Parkes | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.08 | 12.05 |
| Parramatta | 1.28 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 0.34 | 1.28 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 0.30 | -6.50 |
| Paterson | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -2.15 |
| Pearce | 1.001 | 21.00 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -2.90 |
| Perth | 5.00 | 1.15 | 0.81 | 5.50 | 1.10 | 0.83 | 4.5 | 1.15 | 0.80 | 0.81 | -2.45 |
| Petrie | 1.95 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 0.57 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 0.54 | -1.90 |
| Port Adelaide | 17.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 15.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | na | na | na | 0.94 | -9.60 |
| Rankin | 3.00 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 3 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 0.72 | -1.95 |
| Reid | 1.02 | 8.00 | 0.11 | 1.10 | 6.00 | 0.15 | 1.02 | 8 | 0.11 | 0.13 | -7.60 |
| Richmond | 2.80 | 1.38 | 0.67 | 3.20 | 1.30 | 0.71 | 2.85 | 1.37 | 0.68 | 0.69 | -5.10 |
| Riverina | 1.001 | 26.00 | 0.04 | 1.01 | 13.00 | 0.07 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -6.00 |
| Robertson | 1.08 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.08 | 7.00 | 0.13 | 1.06 | 7 | 0.13 | 0.13 | -5.75 |
| Ryan | 1.001 | 9.00 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 8.50 | 0.11 | na | na | na | 0.10 | -1.25 |
| Scullin | 13.00 | 1.001 | 0.93 | 13.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | na | na | na | 0.93 | -12.10 |
| Shortland | 7.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 7 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 0.88 | -7.90 |
| Solomon | 1.14 | 5.00 | 0.19 | 1.15 | 4.80 | 0.19 | 1.13 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.19 | -3.95 |
| Stirling | 1.001 | 11.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.09 | -0.30 |
| Sturt | 1.001 | 12.00 | 0.08 | 1.02 | 11.00 | 0.08 | na | na | na | 0.08 | -4.75 |
| Swan | 1.10 | 5.50 | 0.17 | 1.12 | 5.25 | 0.18 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.17 | -1.25 |
| Sydney | 12.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 11.00 | 1.01 | 0.92 | na | na | na | 0.92 | -10.50 |
| Tangney | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.06 | 3.70 |
| Throsby | 12.00 | 1.001 | 0.92 | 9.00 | 1.03 | 0.90 | na | na | na | 0.91 | -5.95 |
| Wakefield | 4.50 | 1.15 | 0.80 | 5.00 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 4.25 | 1.18 | 0.78 | 0.80 | -6.25 |
| Wannon | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.01 | 21.00 | 0.05 | na | na | na | 0.05 | -5.30 |
| Warringah | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.04 | -6.00 |
| Watson | 7.00 | 1.05 | 0.87 | 8.00 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 8 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.88 | -4.05 |
| Wentworth | 1.001 | 34.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 | 17.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.04 | -6.00 |
| Werriwa | 2.10 | 1.67 | 0.56 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 0.55 | 0.57 | -6.15 |
| Wide Bay | 1.001 | 13.00 | 0.07 | 1.01 | 15.00 | 0.06 | na | na | na | 0.07 | 3.90 |
| Wills | 15.00 | 1.001 | 0.94 | 26.00 | 1.01 | 0.96 | na | na | na | 0.95 | -5.30 |
| Wright | 1.001 | 17.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 10.00 | 0.09 | na | na | na | 0.07 | -0.55 |
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