Two-party-preferred tables

(This page is, apart from the current paragraph, a copy of the original, posted on 2015-09-03. Since then I have made a small revision to the TPP estimate method, which changes slightly some of the numbers in the tables below. This note added 2015-11-27.)

The following table contains my estimates for the Labor share of the two-party-preferred vote in elections from 1919 to 1980, and the exact figures from 1983 to 2013 (including a guess for Newcastle in 1998). Several of the Northern Territory figures are entirely guessed. I describe my methodology on the data page.

Year	Aust	NSW	Vic	Qld	WA	SA	Tas	ACT	NT
1919	45.9	48.3	43.8	47.0	41.4	44.2	43.7
1922	48.8	49.0	49.1	45.9	50.4	53.5	44.4		64.8
1925	46.2	46.5	47.3	43.3	43.5	48.2	42.9		62.5
1928	48.4	51.2	48.0	42.3	43.2	51.8	44.9		67.5
1929	56.7	59.9	58.1	45.3	51.8	58.9	54.5		76.0
1931	41.5	43.4	37.9	49.4	42.5	34.9	35.5		60.2
1934	46.5	47.2	44.3	51.8	46.2	41.7	47.8		65.2
1937	48.7	48.1	48.8	50.7	50.5	45.3	51.6		67.1
1940	50.0	53.2	48.6	49.3	46.1	44.7	48.8		68.4
1943	59.3	63.1	55.2	55.7	65.8	58.3	55.8		77.8
1946	54.4	57.4	52.2	47.7	57.3	57.2	52.2		72.9
1949	48.9	50.9	49.5	42.4	47.1	50.6	46.5	60.4	68.7
1951	49.2	50.4	50.6	43.6	45.2	51.5	47.4	65.3	71.2
1954	50.8	53.2	50.5	45.1	47.6	52.9	50.0	64.2	77.6
1955	46.1	49.7	41.3	44.4	45.0	48.7	47.7	64.6	62.2
1958	46.1	49.7	43.3	41.2	41.0	49.9	49.6	70.1	62.3
1961	50.5	54.6	45.0	50.5	43.3	54.2	55.7	64.9	66.8
1963	47.3	49.0	43.1	47.8	44.1	52.2	53.9	54.9	63.5
1966	43.0	43.5	39.7	44.0	45.1	42.3	53.3	55.3	48.3
1969	50.1	51.7	44.8	49.5	52.6	54.2	55.8	71.0	40.8
1972	52.6	55.2	50.4	49.6	48.3	52.6	60.4	65.2	45.5
1974	51.5	54.6	50.4	45.4	48.8	52.4	55.4	59.0	47.3
1975	44.4	47.0	44.1	39.7	41.0	44.9	44.0	49.6	45.2
1977	45.6	47.7	44.8	42.0	40.3	48.8	43.9	54.3	47.5
1980	49.8	50.4	51.0	47.2	47.1	49.8	47.2	58.5	48.8
1983	53.23	54.09	54.49	49.46	55.00	52.30	43.58	65.49	51.87
1984	51.77	52.91	53.09	47.71	50.86	51.67	46.63	61.96	48.61
1987	50.83	50.29	52.30	49.32	50.91	50.24	46.90	63.25	52.22
1990	49.90	52.13	47.46	50.19	47.13	49.50	47.90	58.54	55.02
1993	51.44	54.38	51.80	48.43	46.02	47.33	54.65	61.19	55.31
1996	46.37	47.44	50.30	39.78	44.00	42.74	51.58	55.46	49.63
1998	51.05	51.74	53.53	46.95	49.46	46.89	57.32	62.44	50.57
2001	49.05	48.34	52.14	45.14	48.38	45.92	57.73	61.08	52.49
2004	47.26	48.07	49.00	42.91	44.60	45.64	54.19	61.54	52.15
2007	52.70	53.68	54.27	50.44	46.74	52.40	56.21	63.40	55.41
2010	50.12	48.84	55.31	44.86	43.59	53.18	60.62	61.67	50.74
2013	46.51	45.65	50.20	43.02	41.72	47.64	51.23	59.91	49.65

The following table allows comparisons of estimates for the Labor share of the two-party-preferred vote by me (DB), Adam Carr (AC), Colin Hughes (CH), the late Joan Rydon, and Malcolm Mackerras (the latter two combined in a single series, R/M). Carr's estimates are from here, Hughes's estimates are those on the AEC website, and the Rydon/Mackerras series is gleaned from several sources. Mumble posted scans of tables provided by Mackerras for 1937-1958. These contain Rydon's estimates for 1937-1943 and 1951-1955, and Mackerras's estimates for 1946, 1949, and 1958. Mackerras's estimates for 1961-1974 are in his book Elections 1975, pp192-3. His estimates for 1975 and 1977 are from his monograph Australian General Election and Senate Election, December 10, 1977: Statistical Analysis, and for 1980 from Australian General Election and Senate Election 1980: Statistical Analysis.

	Aust				NSW				Vic				Qld				WA				SA				Tas				ACT				NT
Year	DB	AC	CH	R/M	DB	AC	CH	R/M	DB	AC	CH	R/M	DB	AC	CH	R/M	DB	AC	CH	R/M	DB	AC	CH	R/M	DB	AC	CH	R/M	DB	AC	CH	R/M	DB	AC	CH	R/M
1919	45.9	46.0			48.3	48.5			43.8	42.9			47.0	49.7			41.4	41.3			44.2	44.1			43.7	42.7
1922	48.8	46.6			49.0	47.5			49.1	45.0			45.9	45.6			50.4	43.3			53.5	53.1			44.4	44.5							64.8
1925	46.2	45.9			46.5	46.4			47.3	46.6			43.3	43.8			43.5	40.8			48.2	48.2			42.9	45.2							62.5
1928	48.4	48.4			51.2	50.5			48.0	48.9			42.3	42.9			43.2	43.6			51.8	52.4			44.9	42.0							67.5
1929	56.7	55.7			59.9	58.7			58.1	57.7			45.3	44.8			51.8	47.2			58.9	57.8			54.5	54.4							76.0
1931	41.5	39.1			43.4	39.7			37.9	35.5			49.4	50.8			42.5	40.6			34.9	32.6			35.5	35.4							60.2
1934	46.5	46.3			47.2	47.5			44.3	43.2			51.8	51.9			46.2	45.8			41.7	42.0			47.8	49.1							65.2
1937	48.7	48.0		49.4	48.1	48.4		48.8	48.8	46.8		49.8	50.7	48.5		51.7	50.5	50.5		50.4	45.3	45.9		45.4	51.6	52.4		53.1					67.1
1940	50.0	49.7		50.3	53.2	52.9		54.2	48.6	47.8		48.4	49.3	49.0		49.2	46.1	47.8		48.1	44.7	44.9		44.0	48.8	48.0		48.9					68.4
1943	59.3	59.1		58.2	63.1	60.9		62.7	55.2	57.6		54.4	55.7	55.2		54.6	65.8	65.6		62.0	58.3	58.3		58.2	55.8	56.6		55.3					77.8
1946	54.4	53.7		53.8	57.4	56.0		56.6	52.2	52.2		51.6	47.7	47.0		47.0	57.3	56.5		56.6	57.2	57.5		57.3	52.2	52.2		52.2					72.9
1949	48.9	48.4	49.0	48.7	50.9	50.1	50.8	50.5	49.5	49.0	49.7	49.5	42.4	42.3	42.7	42.5	47.1	46.7	47.0	45.4	50.6	50.6	50.6	50.6	46.5	46.5	46.5	46.5	60.4				68.7
1951	49.2	49.3	49.3	49.2	50.4	50.5	50.5	51.3	50.6	50.2	50.7	50.6	43.6	44.3	43.5	43.2	45.2	46.0	45.6	45.5	51.5	51.8	51.8	51.7	47.4	48.2	47.4	47.4	65.3				71.2
1954	50.8	51.2	50.7	50.5	53.2	53.0	53.0	53.2	50.5	50.5	50.7	50.7	45.1	45.1	44.8	44.2	47.6	48.1	48.1	47.8	52.9	56.7	52.7	52.9	50.0	49.9	50.0	49.9	64.2				77.6
1955	46.1	46.4	45.8	46.5	49.7	50.4	49.5	49.6	41.3	40.4	40.8	41.3	44.4	44.7	43.9	44.0	45.0	44.9	43.5	46.7	48.7	50.9	49.0	50.9	47.7	47.4	47.5	47.9	64.6				62.2
1958	46.1	45.9	45.9	45.9	49.7	49.8	49.8	49.8	43.3	42.3	42.3	42.3	41.2	41.4	41.4	41.4	41.0	40.8	40.8	40.8	49.9	49.8	49.8	49.8	49.6	49.8	49.8	49.8	70.1				62.3
1961	50.5	50.5	50.5	50.5	54.6	54.8	54.8	54.8	45.0	44.5	44.5	44.5	50.5	50.7	50.7	50.7	43.3	43.5	43.5	43.5	54.2	54.2	54.2	54.2	55.7	56.0	56.0	56.0	64.9				66.8
1963	47.3	47.4	47.4	47.4	49.0	49.3	49.3	49.3	43.1	42.5	42.5	42.5	47.8	48.1	48.1	48.1	44.1	43.8	43.8	43.8	52.2	53.3	53.3	53.3	53.9	54.5	54.5	54.5	54.9				63.5
1966	43.0	43.1	43.1	43.1	43.5	43.9	43.9	43.9	39.7	39.3	39.3	39.3	44.0	44.3	44.3	44.3	45.1	45.7	45.7	45.7	42.3	42.4	42.4	42.4	53.3	53.9	53.9	53.9	55.3	54.8	55.8		48.3	48.3
1969	50.1	50.2	50.2	50.2	51.7	51.6	51.6	51.6	44.8	44.9	44.9	44.9	49.5	49.9	49.9	49.9	52.6	52.6	52.6	52.6	54.2	54.2	54.2	54.2	55.8	56.1	56.1	56.1	71.0	70.9	71.6		40.8	40.8	40.8
1972	52.6	52.7	52.7	52.7	55.2	55.4	55.4	55.4	50.4	50.4	50.4	50.4	49.6	49.5	49.5	49.5	48.3	48.3	48.3	48.3	52.6	52.7	52.7	52.7	60.4	60.5	60.5	60.5	65.2	68.0	68.0	68.0	45.5	45.5	45.5	45.5
1975	44.4	44.3	44.3	44.3	47.0	46.8	46.8	46.8	44.1	43.8	43.8	43.8	39.7	39.8	39.8	39.8	41.0	41.2	41.2	41.2	44.9	44.9	44.9	44.9	44.0	44.1	44.1	44.1	49.6	49.3	49.3	49.3	45.2	45.1	45.1	45.1
1977	45.6	45.4	45.4	45.4	47.7	47.6	47.6	47.6	44.8	44.5	44.5	44.5	42.0	42.0	42.0	42.0	40.3	39.9	39.9	39.9	48.8	48.7	48.7	48.7	43.9	43.8	43.8	43.8	54.3	54.3	54.3	54.3	47.5	47.5	47.5	47.5
1980	49.8	49.4	49.6	49.6	50.4	50.1	50.4	50.4	51.0	50.7	50.7	50.7	47.2	46.8	46.9	46.9	47.1	45.9	46.7	46.6	49.8	49.3	49.6	49.4	47.2	47.1	47.1	47.0	58.5	58.3	58.6	58.5	48.8	48.8	48.8	48.8